Is the fall box office in dire straits? Hollywood is placing its bets on a familiar face – or rather, a fearsome, mandibles-sporting alien – to rescue it! Predator: Badlands from 20th Century Studios is aiming for a global opening of at least $60 million, with over $25 million expected from the U.S. and Canada alone. But can this new installment in the Predator franchise truly deliver the knockout punch the industry desperately needs?
This marks Disney's second attempt at a sci-fi blockbuster this fall, following Tron: Ares, which, despite a hefty $220 million production budget, only managed a worldwide total of $134.3 million to date. The key difference this time? Predator: Badlands might attract a younger audience, particularly those under 25, thanks to its PG-13 rating – a departure from the usual R-rated fare of the Predator series. This strategic move opens the door to a wider demographic.
So, what's Badlands got going for it? Well, it's got Dan Trachtenberg, the director who breathed new life into the franchise with the critically acclaimed Hulu movie Prey. Interestingly, Prey was the streaming service's biggest premiere ever back in August 2022. But here's where it gets controversial... Unlike most Predator films, where humans are the hunted, Badlands flips the script, making the alien hunter the prey. The early reviews are promising, with an impressive 88% fresh rating.
In terms of advance ticket sales in the U.S., Badlands is roughly on par with Ballerina and The Accountant 2 (both with $24.5 million U.S. openings), but slightly behind Tron: Ares ($33.2 million U.S. opening). The film is set to premiere in approximately 3,700 U.S.-Canada theaters, including premium formats like IMAX and PLFs.
What about the franchise's history? Since the original Predator in 1987, there have been eight films, offering a consistent presence compared to the three Tron movies released since 1982. But here's the catch: there's a ceiling for Predator openings. The franchise record belongs to Alien vs. Predator (2004), which debuted at $38.2 million. Among the standalone films, Predators (2010), directed by Nimród Antal and produced by Robert Rodriguez, holds the best domestic opening at $24.7 million.
Predator: Badlands will host premium-format fan previews on Wednesday, followed by Thursday previews starting at 2 p.m.
Predator: Badlands is also launching internationally this weekend, starting Wednesday in countries like France, Korea, the Netherlands, and Indonesia. Thursday sees the film opening in Australia, Brazil, Germany, Italy, and Mexico. Friday rounds out the rollout with China, India, Japan, Spain, and the UK. The offshore projection is between $35 million and $38 million.
For comparison, the previous installment, 2018's The Predator (directed by Shane Black), opened to $49 million in comparable foreign markets at today's rates. However, the current market is challenging, and that figure included $19 million from China – a number Badlands isn't expected to reach. Although the Elle Fanning-starring movie led presales in China on Friday, it didn't maintain that momentum throughout the weekend.
Excluding China, the 2018 Predator movie performed best in Mexico, the UK, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and the major European markets. That installment ultimately grossed $146 million globally, with $95 million from the international box office (at today's rates).
To promote the new film, Fanning, Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi, and Trachtenberg attended a special red-carpet screening at the BFI IMAX Waterloo in London last week, as well as an MCM Comic-Con London panel, and a chat at SDCC Malaga in September.
And that's not all that's hitting theaters. Along with Predator: Badlands, several upscale adult movies are also set for North American release, all projected to earn in the low-single-digit millions ($1 million to $4 million). These include: Christy, a film about female boxer Christy Martin (from Black Bear, a financier-turned-domestic distributor, with 2,000 theaters and a 66% fresh rating); Nuremberg (from Sony Pictures Classics and Walden Media, with 1,700 theaters and a 68% fresh rating); Sarah’s Oil (from Amazon MGM Studios/Kingdom Story Company, with no critical score yet); and Die My Love (a $24 million pickup from Mubi, starring Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson, with 1,900 theaters and a 79% fresh rating).
What do you think? Will Predator: Badlands reign supreme at the box office, or will it fall prey to the current market conditions? Share your thoughts in the comments!
